John Ward – Greece : Jubilation Is Premature… Nobody Has Factored In The Reality Of The Morning After – Pasok Still Wants Syriza in Coalition, Or No Deal – 18 June 2012

“Yo! we goin’ ter Hell in a bucket guys!”

Yesterday I posted to advise folks to ignore the Greek election, and focus instead on the imminence of Greek default. I have more for you on this story already.

Lucas – Do You Really Believe This – Greece Has Voted For A Bailout And Staying In The Eurozone – 17 June 2012

Greece poll: Pro-bailout party’s narrow win hailed = BBC News Headline

The narrow election victory of Greece’s pro-bailout New Democracy party has been welcomed by world leaders, who urged Athens to quickly form a cabinet.

Mish/ Mike Shedlock – Greek Rail Against “Crude” German Editorial; Merkel Ally Tells Greece “Vote Right Or Euro’s Gone”; Initial Estimate 2:3 ET Sunday – 16 June 2012

In the past week, as I expected, the ECB, Troika, German officials and others have all warned Greeks to not vote for Alexis Tsipras and his radical-left party Syriza. Will those tactics backfire?

I suggest they already have. The pertinent question is whether they have backfired enough to matter.

John Ward – Euroblown : Syriza Leaps Into Opinion Poll Lead As Greek President Has Talks With The Military – 30 May 2012

A new poll by VPRC tonight has Syriza as the biggest Greek Party with 30% of voting intentions, followed by New Democracy on 26.5%, while Pasok continues to languish at 12.5%. But there were disturbing reports of military discussions with the caretaker government.

Opinion polls in Greece are about as stable as flies in a hurricane, but there is now a real possibility that the Left in Greece could put together a majority Coalition. With the Democratic Left at 7.5%, and the Communist Party at 5.5%, those together with Syriza would add up to 43%. And Louka Katseli – a former PASOK minister who now leads the small leftist party Social Pact – today threw her weight behind Alexis Tsipras.

Mish / Mike Shedlock – Gaffe? What Gaffe? Greek Polls? All Over The Place – 27 May 2012

I am amused by the Financial Times headline Tsipras shrugs off gaffe about Hollande.

When Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek socialist leader, boarded a 7.30am flight to Paris on Tuesday, only his closest aides knew he was on the way to a hastily arranged meeting with the French president.

Mish/ Mike Shedlock – What If Tsipras Is Not Bluffing? Who Holds The Upper Hand? What Is Troika’s Biggest Fear? Can Greece Possibly Stay In The Eurozone After Default? – 25 May 2012

I have read countless articles over the past few week stating a belief that Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras is bluffing in his threat to stay in the euro but default in debts.

Is it remotely possible to default and stay in the eurozone?

Since this is a multi-part question, let’s first address the question “is this a bluff?”

John Ward – Euroblown : Troika Cancels Athens Visit As Greece Heads For Second Election – 9 May 2012

Shrewd Tsipras builds bridges as Venizelos refuses Mandate, talks behind scenes to Troika.

In a first for Greek politics, Evangelo Venizelos (left) the leader of Greece’s PASOK Party refused to accept the President’s mandate before he’d been offered it. This breaks the record set by Antonis Samaras last Monday, in giving up on the task after 210 minutes.

Golum XIV – “Greece’s Tsipras Says Wants International Commission To Investigate If Greece’s Debt Is Legal” – 9 May 2012

Recovery Failure in Spain and Italy.

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The Milan Index MIB

Its highest ever point was   44 364   on the week of 14 May 2007

Its lowest ever was                 12 895  on the week of 2nd March 2009

Today 8 May ’12                        13 936

So 3 solid years of hundreds of billions of Euros of Italian and European bank bail outs and the resultant austerity to pay for them and ….