Mish/ Mike Shedlock – What If Tsipras Is Not Bluffing? Who Holds The Upper Hand? What Is Troika’s Biggest Fear? Can Greece Possibly Stay In The Eurozone After Default? – 25 May 2012

I have read countless articles over the past few week stating a belief that Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras is bluffing in his threat to stay in the euro but default in debts.

Is it remotely possible to default and stay in the eurozone?

Since this is a multi-part question, let’s first address the question “is this a bluff?”

John Ward – Euroblown : Greece : How We All Paid €220bn To Get Deeper In Debt – How To Spend €220bn And Wind Up €20bn Worse Off – 24 May 2012

Another little dose of Greek reality. In Crete as of yesterday afternoon, prescriptions have been refused at all pharmacies unless customers pay the full price. It’s obvious really: if you raid the hospital bank accounts to pay off the bondholders, the hospitals don’t pay the pharmacies, and so the chemist charges full wack. I think under Friedmanite economics that would be called the market deciding.

John Ward – Euroblown : Merkel “Fears Greek Distractions Will Torpedo Currency Union” – Summint Signposts : Hollande’s Eurobond, And Greece’s Banks – 23 May 2012

Can Hollande offer what Merkel wants?

The poker game that is non-negotiable bailout terms v Greek exit threat continues, but most of the propaganda is now coming from Berlin-am-Brussels. A German source suggested last night that Merkel is adamant that Greece must not derail the dash to Fiscal Union. If Francois Hollande gets his way, however, the Greeks will not be required to call the EU’s bluff – or vice versa.

Mish/ MIke Shedlock – Greek Voters Need To Look Beyond The Lies Of Bloomberg, Merkel, ECB, IMF, Ekathimerini; Greece Nightmare Coming Or Already At Hand? – 22 May 2012

A half-baked editorial on Bloomberg, full of one-sided distortion, warns Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond Syriza’s Dangerous Lies.

Tsipras and his Syriza party are selling the Greek people a falsehood: namely, that Greece can renounce the terms of its bailout agreements with the euro-area governments and still receive their money. If voters believe him, and he attracts enough votes in elections on June 17 to follow through with his threats, then his country, Europe and the global economy will live for years with the consequences.

John Ward – European Banknotes : The Suddenly Missing Y Chromosome In Greece – 18 May 2012

The strange case of Y = 0

Some of you may recall a post of mine on the subject of how one tells the origin of euronotes by country, and how the Bank of Greece has gone into the business of printing its own unauthorised version.

At the time, I pondered at length during several posts as to why Mario in Frankfurt didn’t seem to be worried about it. Did he know anyway? some Sloggers asked: to which the answer is ‘Yes’, because each country issuing Toytown notes uses a prefix in the note number to denote the origin. Without that, the note isn’t legal tender.

John Ward – Greece On The Brink : Chaos And Fakery As The Final Acts Begin To Unfold – 16 May 2012

With signs of growing panic in the markets and Greek banking system, dirty tricks via post seem to be the order of the day in Athenian politics. The Establishment Parties and the EU continue to develop scenarios suggesting that the sky will fall in if Greeks vote to leave the eurozone, although opinion polls continue to show that – while support is moving increasing towards the anti-Troika Parties – the electorate has no strong desire (35% at most) to leave the EMU. It seems to The Slog, however, that if the Greeks can hold on and keep their heads, inflexible austerity as a strategy will be a dead duck in the eurozone by the time they come to vote again on June 16th anyway.

Mac Slavo – Greeks Rush The Banks; Lines Form At ATMs; Nearly $1 Billion Withdrawn In Past Week – 16 May 2012

Without a government for the last eleven days, and amid mainstream discussion of a Euro Zone exit, the Greek people are realizing that the economic and political system as they know it is rapidly descending into chaos.

With massive jobless rates that have forced many into bartering to survive, and facing credit destruction across the entirety of the country that has led to shortages of critical supplies like life saving medicines, those with any money left at national banks are taking the desperate step of withdrawing as much of their savings as they can from a banking system on its last leg.

John Ward – Euroblown : New ‘Yes And No Perhaps’ Threat Form IMF To Greece: Greek Politicians Told To Ignore Electorate Or Lose Out – 8 May 2012

“The IMF is threatening Greece that they will stop paying bailout instalments if the new government disagrees with the future austerity measures as outlined,” an IMF official to the Dow Jones news agency said last night (writes The Greek Reporter)

According to the news agency, the creditors will wait until Greek parties form the new government, but they do not intend to change their plans. On the contrary, they call on Greeks to obey the ‘rules’ and observe the pledges.

Lucas – A Greek Paradox And A French Sleeper – 7 May 2012

Strange to read about the Greek opposition to Europe and the austerity  winning, but not really winning. Due to the Greek electorial system the winning party in the elections, gets 50 seats in the Parliament extra.

This makes that though the “winners” still lose in a paradox. The Greeks win nothing and lose only in time. The not “winning” but still largest party is just one seat short of forming a government. But the other parties the real “winners” will not help to get a majority for sure.

So this will soon become a stalemate. And after a couple of attempts to form a government new elections have to decide again what will happen.

NO win NO gain.

John Ward – Greek Election : Wolfie Strangelove & His Bankers Go Election Manipulating…With Their Customary Level Of Subtlety – 6 May 2012

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) managed to get right up Antonis Samaras’s nose this weekend, thanks to a report it issued suggesting that his New Democracy Party and PASOK would have to form a post-election government. As the other Parties were not being bribed by Brussels didn’t like the bailout much (on the grounds that it only makes the Athens debt worse and worse) then the Greek authorities would have to ignore the election result, and appoint an administration of technocrats ready to stick to the terms of the bailout – and remain in the euro so that the ECB and France don’t collapse in hopeless debt.