Mish/ Mike Shedlock – New Democracy Wins But May Be Unable To Form Coalition; Syriza Has Coalition Chances If New Democracy Fails – 17 June 2012

In the last 15 minutes I have changed this blog headline a few times from various forms of likely winner for New Democracy to “winner”.

The key news now is that it still depends on Pasok , which has stated unwillingness to enter into a coalition with New Democracy and refused to do so in the last election. The difference this time is that Syriza has a strong chance of forming a coalition if New Democracy fails.

Mish/ Mike Shedlock – Greek Rail Against “Crude” German Editorial; Merkel Ally Tells Greece “Vote Right Or Euro’s Gone”; Initial Estimate 2:3 ET Sunday – 16 June 2012

In the past week, as I expected, the ECB, Troika, German officials and others have all warned Greeks to not vote for Alexis Tsipras and his radical-left party Syriza. Will those tactics backfire?

I suggest they already have. The pertinent question is whether they have backfired enough to matter.

John Ward – Euroblown : Syriza Leaps Into Opinion Poll Lead As Greek President Has Talks With The Military – 30 May 2012

A new poll by VPRC tonight has Syriza as the biggest Greek Party with 30% of voting intentions, followed by New Democracy on 26.5%, while Pasok continues to languish at 12.5%. But there were disturbing reports of military discussions with the caretaker government.

Opinion polls in Greece are about as stable as flies in a hurricane, but there is now a real possibility that the Left in Greece could put together a majority Coalition. With the Democratic Left at 7.5%, and the Communist Party at 5.5%, those together with Syriza would add up to 43%. And Louka Katseli – a former PASOK minister who now leads the small leftist party Social Pact – today threw her weight behind Alexis Tsipras.

Mish / Mike Shedlock – Gaffe? What Gaffe? Greek Polls? All Over The Place – 27 May 2012

I am amused by the Financial Times headline Tsipras shrugs off gaffe about Hollande.

When Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek socialist leader, boarded a 7.30am flight to Paris on Tuesday, only his closest aides knew he was on the way to a hastily arranged meeting with the French president.

Mish/ Mike Shedlock – What If Tsipras Is Not Bluffing? Who Holds The Upper Hand? What Is Troika’s Biggest Fear? Can Greece Possibly Stay In The Eurozone After Default? – 25 May 2012

I have read countless articles over the past few week stating a belief that Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras is bluffing in his threat to stay in the euro but default in debts.

Is it remotely possible to default and stay in the eurozone?

Since this is a multi-part question, let’s first address the question “is this a bluff?”