With at least four hours to go before the Greek election exit-polls come into play, The Slog has been given access to more secret voting surveys conducted over the weekend. Taken together, they suggest Bloomberg’s projection of a 45% share for pro-bailout Parties is far too high.
I’m showing the predictions grouped below, because under Greek electoral law, the top three parties get first crack at an attempt to form a Government. They are allowed a maximum of three days to do so. (Thanks to PP’s Dimitris for guiding me on this)
New Democracy 18.8%
SYRIZA – left – 15.2%
PASOK – 13.5%
As we can see immediately, the total pro-bailout vote is projected to be 32.3% – less than a third of the electorate. But the anarchic element in this ‘Top Three’ is that the second biggest Party is virulently anti-bailout, and thus very unlikely to do a deal with the other two. So my guesstimate at this point would be that after three days – assuming Wolfgang Schäuble and Tim Geithner haven’t already taken Athens prisoner double-handed – New Democracy and Pasok will try and pick off wavering elements in smaller Parties in order to cobble together some nefarious form of National Government. As is common in such cases (pace Nick Clegg in the UK) Big Titles will be handed out to the key egomaniacs involved.
So now we need to look at the lower-placed runners:
Independent Greeks – right – 12.1%
KKE – communist – 9.3%
DHMAR – leftish – 7.8%
Golden Dawn – fascist – 5.8%
But even with individuals in such Parties as DHMAR and Independent Greeks joining them, it is highly unlikely that a PASOK/ND led Coalition could get much beyond 40%.
And now comes the conundrum for Brussels, the Troika, Berlin, and Washington….especially in the light of the IIF and Schäuble mouthing off yesterday: New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras could join with the Independent Greeks, Golden Dawn and DHMAR to create a Coalition against the Brussels Accord with around 46% of all votes cast.
The turnout based on these figures, by the way, is – at 82.7% – very close to the projected 81.5% being suggested for the French election. So it would be very hard indeed for any of the anti-democratic EU elements to use low turnout as an excuse for any null-and-void-lets-get-the-technocrats-involved nonsense.
I still think the outcome of this election is far more significant than the French affair. But in the MSM context, it’s obvious I’m in a tiny minority. Excellent: this is always a good sign.