On July 29th this year, The Slog posted as follows:
‘What we have building up in Syria is the potential for a Sarajevo moment. This will, I know, attract the usual salvo of faux-wisdom suggesting that I’m being alarmist. But naysayers need to remember that we are, at best, an alarming species. Our sense of being threatened is way beyond what we really need.’
I learned yesterday (and Ben Brogan’s tweets support this) that three days earlier, a top-level military/Number Ten session was convened. At one point, it seems the Prime Minister asked, “If we were to ask you to invade somewhere with a view to police action, what might your first question be?” A fairly senior officer responded that his first enquiry would be, “With What?”. I’m told that William Hague winced visibly.
While this really is a case of harshly-cut chickens limping home to roost, there is also clear evidence here that Downing Street had advance knowledge of Israel’s intention to take out a Hamas leader, and how this might in turn wind up Iranian venom towards the Infidel in general….and Israel in particular. Be under no illusions about this: Iran and Hamas liaise closely about how to arm, aid and otherwise protect Assad’s regime against the onward march of Anglo-American blind faith in their informal alliance with the Sunni-dominated Muslim Brotherhood.
I talked with a close friend this morning whose abiding belief is that – as he put it – “the escalation of this could go from nought to ten million on no time flat”. Clearly, his view is at one with what I suggested four months ago.
We have a bottled-up Netanyahu belligerence. A frustrated Iranian hatred of being fiscally bullied by America. A US State Department blindly convinced that Assad and Iran must be crushed. A Muslim Brotherhood exploiting that simplistic analysis. The Russians fearful of losing yet another key Middle Eastern jewel. And the Chinese keen to keep Iran as its major access to Middle Eastern energy.
But above all, what we have is one Barack Obama freed from the hold of his electorate, and intent on a place in World History as the man who backed the right horse on energy. The unstable uncertainty is made worse still by the determination of his Secretary of State to go into temporary retirement prior to a crack at the 2016 Democratic nomination for the White House. And finally, one last catalyst for Armageddon is the emergence of the Seven Samurai in Beijing….whose remit may well be internal repression and foreign militarism.
If you add the likely increases in globalist mercantile tension in the coming years to all this, then things don’t look that great. But to be honest, for many of my 64 years, things have looked this bad. One hopes as always for good sense to prevail. We can only pray that – with this many variant interests in play – that general historical rule will hold good.