DONETSK ON PUTIN’S WISHLIST – PLUS YANUKOVICH REINSTALLATION
Although the Ukrainian mess is rapidly turning into stereophonic spin, the one thing that’s clear (as not exactly exclusively predicted here right at the outset) is things are getting out of control, and events will pretty soon start overtaking whatever cunning plans both sides had at the start.
However, in the early days The Slog did also float the point that ‘what a massive majority of Ukrainians now want [is] to have more local control but be neither Eunatic nor Bear’. At the time, Monster Murdoch’s Fox News claimed to have intelligence suggesting Moscow would try and deliver that in a sort of Swiss canton arrangement.
Feedback I have in my inbox this morning suggests that may well be Putin’s objective. But from what I can gather, Vlad the Lad’s idea of independence won’t be the West’s.
My information suggests that Russia’s “green men” provocateurs have expanded beyond Crimea, and Moscow’s aim is to secure the creation of a Donetsk State enjoying a customs agreement with it – ie, a vassal State along the lines of the old Soviet Union. Central Ukraine will be given back to democratically elected crook Viktor Yanukovych – independent of both EU and RF…but obviously pro Moscow. And the rump will become the new Ukraine which will effortlessly fold into the arms of the IMF/EU moneylenders. Or more exactly, it will collapse into their arms, given it has a whopping debt and not much left in the way of an economy. (One presumes that Moscow will pick up the tab for the rest of it….as the Kremlin was going to do before the EC idiots stuck their noses in and began to side with the anti-Yanukovych protesters.)
The Russian mentality will see this as a fair compromise, a large minority of Ukrainians will see it as rape, and the West will find it unacceptable. But I still doubt NATO and the EU will go beyond stepping up sanctions, and I also still believe that Russia is in good shape to weather them for some time yet.
The Western media machine went into overdrive yesterday in a bid to show that the RF is on the verge of collapse; this is wishful thinking: sanctions will have an effect, but that will take time. Meanwhile, the West itself is not exactly in a position to restrict its access to business with Russia….or anyone else for that matter.