Nobody knows exactly when it’ll become a panic. But the bust has begun.
I’m well aware of the fact that we’ve been here before and summer is nearly upon us, but I no longer believe that the dam solely and hastily constructed by Gordon Brown (with some help from 3000 central bankers five years ago) can hold until Labor Day. I’ve posted before – many times…too many times – about telltale signs being in place, and élite members halfway worthy of the name having no plans for anything much after the end of May 2014. I do realise that for the euro politicians, that’s all to do with their
voting charades elections on May 22nd; but then, Hillary Clinton isn’t a europol, and neither are George Soros and Warren Buffet….and they are, in private, of the same view. Anyway, as we’ve all known for at least seven years or more, this is nothing to do with the order-takers in our various legislatures.
More signs were taking their place in the Götterdammerung queue last week. Oddly ominous debt-margin behaviour was by far the biggest, but for me the most compelling was the rout in the hitech/coms sector…or as I’ve taken to calling it, “Dotcom II: This time we’re Dead”.
Whenever markets are about to bust, the measured money starts getting out of the sillier PE ratios and most insane business projection stocks first. This is only common sense, but things are rather different these days in terms of how it gets done. In Dotcom I, sol trading and deep-pool directionalising were barely in place. Thus, the first big, smart money to move out sent a message loud and clear to the herd. In 2008, the problem was little to do with stocks, but by then banks had worked out more and increasingly Teapot-dome nutjob ways of hiding the innate liquidity/uninsured debt ratio problem. And equally, the smart money got out of financial stocks more covertly as the technology advanced further.
I called 2008 in 2006, so I was very trigger-finger itchy….and still incredibly green. I started calling what’s coming now in 2010, but all this means is that two things have in turn been “improved”: everyone in a senior banking position is now screwing taxpayers and customers on at least four different levels, all of them invisible to the lazy eye; and the major markets (especially stocks) simply don’t exist as our fathers and elder siblings knew them even eight years ago. Today, an injudicious alchemic hubble-bubble of Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, lawless sovereign manipulation, private banks working illegally for CBs, electronic spreads and untraceable moves have turned the markets into a place where the croupiers and casino managers always win, and the people round the vingt-et-un tables really are the mugs 100% of the time.
Opinion leaders are still careful to use the sector descriptor ‘players’ to describe all creatures great and small, but in truth there are millions of players and a handful of roulette-wheel scientists. What we’ve all grudgingly had to get accustomed to is the reality that these bastards can make up go down and last Monday become August. And thus the biggest mugs’ game on Earth today is calling when.
So the fact that even all these secret weapons couldn’t hide the Massacre in Microchip Madland last week was about as clear a sign as we’re ever going to get that the pace towards When is accelerating. It seems to me, since around 2010, to have gone through four stages:
1. Recovery is just over the next hill, we are in control
2. We are in control, and recovery is just around the next bend
3. Recovery is right after we turn this corner, for which you’ll be paying mostly, and btw we’ve discovered that government spending is to blame so we’re controlling it
4. No comment.
Three years ago, had last week’s US gdp figures come out in that sort of shape, Obama would’ve been at the next podium in a flash to say why, with just one more heave, all would be well. Even he this time didn’t take part in the ‘wrong sort of weather’ shit. The UK’s Tory lightweights like Dan Hannan and Jeremy Hunt have shut up at last about Booming America and Dead Europe – because the first is so obviously bollocks, and the second is so obviously true in a self-defeating way for our economy….as our last trade figures showed so clearly. Britain’s central banker Mark Carney is not buying the Recovery nonsense being handed out by Osborne, whose sole hope is that, via some miracle, the waters won’t break before May next year. And perhaps most notably, Mario Draghi has been in Trappist mode now since the fake ‘recovery’ in eurozone debt costs.
Only two people are still out there proclaiming final victory. Antonis Samaras is reduced to inventing new words as a means of explaining how exit from the methadone programme requires sudden injections of crack cocaine. And our own home-grown plum-faced whore David Cameron has a new twitter mantra that is not so much protesting too much as shrieking incessantly in the manner of an effeminate hysteric, via the medium of one tweet: ‘proof that our long-term plan is working’.
The Twitter plunge itself (while a major blow to the cause of dictatorship) was carrying lots of messages in addition to the price one, and Skype too is reverting to hype. So many of these mentally sub-teen multi-millionaires have lost the line between selling and service: with or without a market bust, there can be no long-term business survival for a communications brand (like Skype) that changes its Home Page layout to include every way more money can be squeezed out of the user, but not how to continue calling folks. As I’ve asserted ad nauseam now, these people are ill.
So like I suggest, the crazies are going down like ninepins. They were only listed on the markets anyway so launch-specialists could cream off some more froth….and convert it into condominiums in secure areas. That lunatic asylum – the capital city top-end property bubble – will come down hardest of all – but not for some time yet. Not until, in fact, all the escapees are behind the barbed wire and entry-phones. After that, the estate agents will have to helicopter in the viewings.
As the West wakes up to another working day, there is little or no news to calm the nerves. More weak economic data leaked out of China and pushed the Asian markets lower, the FT reported in the last half hour (9.15 am BST); while yesterday and over the weekend, Asian bigwigs were demanding “clearer signals” from the Fed’s Janet Yellen, and “no more QE shocks”. Astonishing stuff: “please increase your debt lunacy so we can make money and then get all hoity-toity sanctimonious about the size of your debt problem”.
Anyway, another week, another Dollar. Which is, of course, a big part of the problem: the world needs another Dollar, and preferably not one raped by a Nixonian yardbrush. Beijing is working hard – slowly, but more determinedly – to make that the Yuan. Rasputin would like it to be the Rouble, Mario would love it to be the euro, and George Osborne doesn’t GAF either way just so long as he can keep his finger pushed hard into that dyke. But the British Chancellor’s dyke is in nothing more than a minor tributary. What is it about the Conservatives and building on floodplains, eh?