Is it a spin-leak act of Game Theory…or a genuine outcome being planned? Nobody can be sure: but as a widely confirmed story, the ‘news’ that Greece will not pay the next IMF tranche of debt has gained traction over the last 72 hours.
Having picked up this ‘tip’ three days ago – and since heard three ‘confirmations’ of it – I now note it is leaking out into the MSM, and so must air what I know.
As of 1pm CET today (Good Friday) I’m led to believe that late pm next Wednesday 8th April, a Greek intention to default (by not paying the next IMF loan tranche) will be announced. As the banks will then be closed during four days of Easter Holiday, the time will be used to plan a crossover period during which new Drachmas (already printed) will exist alongside euros.
The current beat of the street in Athens (and elsewhere outside Greece) is that a struggle is still going on within Syriza as to whether this is a fall back plan, or a decision that is final.
However, there is an obvious third possibility: that this is exactly what the Greek government would want the Eurogroup to think in order to increase the pressure on them to compromise. However, one source told me this morning, “A clear majority of [Greek] Ministers are now strongly of the opinion that the ‘working hard to effect a deal’ spin coming out of the EWG is pure bullshit”.
Certainly, after Wednesday’s wrap of the negotiations there was much blamestorming – as well as several respected and connected commentators saying “both sides are as far apart as ever”.
I don’t know enough as of yet to vote one way or another on the validity of this story.