Some of you may have noticed that Greece hasn’t defaulted yet, but already there is contagion among eurozone Bond prices. This has been true today of Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10-year bond yields, which jumped variously…but by more than 10% on average…with Greece of course back up to pre-bailout levels in 2009-10.
On Wall Street, the Dow fell by 1% over concerns about this, poor consumer pdi and inflation data, and new stricter Chinese trading controls which (it’s felt) might slow growth. It’s Friday, and so volumes are low. But if you zap across the major market websites, you’ll note the beginnings of a sense of panic in some of the interviews. As things stand currently, nobody is looking forward to Monday much.
While the main ‘old’ media dribble on relentlessly about ‘desperation’ in Athens, a quick ring/email around 12 Slog contacts over there revealed a City relaxing in the early summer warmth and still enjoying the post-Syriza election relief about Parliament at last developing a discernible spinal column. The view there now is “on verra” – FFS let’s get on with it, do your worst, and fingers raised into the air.
Sorry to return to this yet one more time, but the more evidence there is that the eurozone (and bourse-dominated neoliberal capitalism generally) clearly aren’t prepared for the contagion that will result from a Greek default, the more Varoufakis and Tsipras must press home their advantage. They’ve gone the extra mile to try and please the Eunatics – but still the Western gargoyle-controlled media want to lie forever about ‘wanton’ Greeks…and dump every last ounce of guilt onto the current Athens regime and the Greek People.
Today, Yanis Varoufakis got exactly twelve minutes from the Black Dude in The White House….during which, all he got back was the usual Obama vapour about “both sides showing flexibility”.
Enough nice guy, already – let’s switch to Plan B: ruthlessness.
We have already seen how a surreptitious assist from the ECB effectively helped Syriza just about clear the last fence erected by Fifi Lafarge and her IMF knitting circle; this and other evidence continues to suggest to me that the very last thing the Berlin/Eurogroupe/ECB brag players want is a Greek default: they have 9-high in their hand – and nothing more.
The world economy is on a knife-edge placed 3 millimetres away from the cliff-edge. What looks like some Friday morning New York profit-taking today could look abysmal by next Tuesday. There is a wave coming: former IMF boss Rodrigo Rato was seen being taken from his Madrid home yesterday by officers from Spain’s tax authorities. He is already being investigated for fraud over his time as chief executive of the Spanish bank, Bankia, which had to be bailed out by the government. He was also a very close colleague of Populist Party leader and arse-licking Brussels collaborator Mariano Rajoy. This is yet more power to the Podemos elbow.
The much-vaunted ‘clean break’ Grexit spun by the media and the EU is a fantasy. The evidence that the US is clearly not in a real recovery has been underlined by today’s data. And with the UK Coalition (three weeks away from a dead-heat election) in receipt of similar data pricking George Osborne’s balloon,it is not surprising that this afternoon the UK Chancellor warned that “one misstep in the Greek debt negotiations could return Europe to the perilous state of 2011 and 2012″.
It is the Empire of Goldmania Sachsini that is under pressure now, not Greece.
In fact, what we have here is a near-perfect alignment of those serendipity stars that will favour David’s victory over Goliath.
Yanis Varoufakis and Alexis Tsipras: play the default card, and mean it. They have only bluff, and you have nothing to fear but fear itself. I understand the risks – and the ‘shame’ this could bring to Syriza among those elements in Greek culture that seem willing to die rather than say no. But the worm must turn, and now is the time.
No offence Grecians, but there is no way Bilderberger, Brussels, Obama, London and Beijing can afford to bring on global tits-up just because Berlin’s dogged control-freakery is inflexible on the subject of a nation that owes a pee in the ocean of planetary debt. The Germans may be well-pleased with the flight to the safety of their Bunds over the last few days, but that’s Fools’ Gold: Wolfgang Schäuble the Ball of Bile does indeed evoke the admiration of Klaus the sausage-muncher in Munchen. But many powerful financiers and game-makers in Bankfurt think the wheels are coming off Wolfie’s chair.
So Gaudeamus igitur Syriza: and carpe diem, because soon enough nos habebit humus.